Scatterism

Marshall Kirkpatrick thinks he’s wrong and cranky, Dietrich Kappe thinks his argument doesn’t hold water, Digg people think the only thing bubbling is his ego, but Dvorak insists it’s “It’s déjà vu all over again”.

Personally, I think they can’t see any signs, neither of a healthy economy nor of an upcoming bust. They’re all emotional. They’re all defensive.

I understand how Dvorak feels about Web 2.0. Had he the chance, he’d beat everyone with a pole and try to convince them “It’s a fad, it’s a fad, it’s a fad”. I would even side with him if we’re going to keep slapping a Web2.0 tag on every reimplementation of an old idea.

To a regular guy like me, an economic bubble is something that can’t be put in words. It’s something that I can sense rather than describe. When I hear “economic bubble”, my brain translates it to “ridiculous overpricing epidemic”. I know how a bust affects global and national economy, I know how stocks can be played, I have a general idea of how these things work. But eventually, it boils down to brilliant vs. stupid venture.

From what I read about booms and bubbles, Web 2.0 at the moment earns to be described as a bubble. It’s showing all the right signs. Maybe not to the extent of the previous, ‘99 dot-com, but the similarities are there. Big bucks are being thrown on tiny start-ups. VCs are excited. Angels are risking it all. And big brother are [sic] eyeing, closely scrutinizing the industry.

Newly founded companies stand on the shoulders of the wounded giants. Everyone’s weary, careful and still confused about the Web. We do understand how all its layers of technology work, but we’re still finding new uses for it. Uses that can enhance our everyday life, rather than add distractions. But I digress.

I’ve been thinking. The Middle East wasn’t as affected by the dot-com bust as the US. It seems to me that the further we move from the US, the less booms and busts affect us; the Middle East was less affected than Italy, which was less affected than France, which was less affected than Canada and the US.

I’m in no position to judge the French and Italian experiences, but I know exactly what the Middle East went through during 2001-2003. I’ve been in this business, and believe me, we’ve seen growth.

I noticed there’s one thing the US has that we don’t have, namely a venture capitalism culture. We do have VCs who are willing to help out, but our VCs don’t seem to get excited over hype. Our VCs don’t get jealous of each other and try to beat other in an arms race. They don’t buy into the media as much. They’re much more careful about what they invest in, and who they invest with.

This could be the reason why Web companies in UAE, for example, aren’t valuated as highly. Or why busts affect us less. VC take less risks, and they wait for start-ups to flourish before they fork out any cash. It’s more of a cultural issue rather than pure business decisions.

I’m not worried about a Web 2.0 bubble burst. For all I care, the first bubble gave us feeds and enjoyable JavaScript. Let’s see what this one will bring. So Mr. Dvorak, ease up, it is a bubble, but it’s not as dangerous. As for the rest of you, Web 2.0 crowd, please keep the experimentation going, and excuse this intermission.